
Poland's Orlen formally terminated a 1 mmtpa LNG supply contract with QatarEnergy that ran through 2034. The termination followed extended force majeure, after drone damage at Ras Laffan and Strait of Hormuz shipping restrictions halted deliveries.
Persistent Qatari supply disruption tightens the LNG market and supports European gas prices. Orlen is shifting to Norwegian and US supply, which reflects how buyers are rerouting around the Gulf.
After 141 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +3.2% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -1.8% to +9.9%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.