
ICE gasoil's December/July backwardation rose $30.50 to +$241.75 per tonne, close to its mid-September peak, while flat-price December gasoil gained 2.5%. The December NYMEX ULSD contract slipped, widening the gasoil-versus-ULSD spread.
The IEA's November Oil Market Report said European diesel remains 77% above pre-war levels and called it an overriding concern.
A steep front-end premium on European diesel raises the value of distillate and biofuel feedstocks, which can support vegetable oil prices through biodiesel margins. The divergence from US ULSD shows the regional split in diesel tightness.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.