
Black Sea shipping activity has fallen about 37% year-on-year as drone and missile attacks expanded, with cargo vessel numbers in the basin down more than a third within seven months. Exporters in Ukraine and Russia face scarce vessels, longer routes via Baltic ports, and higher freight and war-risk insurance.
Fewer vessels and longer routes tighten nearby barley supply for Black Sea and Mediterranean importers and firm risk premiums in physical trade, even though flat prices have not yet spiked. Feed buyers should expect higher landed costs and more volatile basis.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.