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CoBank projects the US inland barge fleet will shrink about 17% by 2035 as owners retire vessels faster than they build new ones, with high construction costs discouraging replacements. The fleet averaged 17.6 years of age in 2026, up from 13.8 years in 2016, and has shrunk 7.6% over the past decade.
A shrinking, aging barge fleet combined with recurring low Mississippi water levels points to tighter transport capacity for grain exports and higher freight costs, which can widen basis discounts for inland farmers. The effect is structural and long-term rather than an immediate price shock.
farmpolicynews.illinois.eduRyan HanrahanNov 13, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 284 past neutral logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.4%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 230 past neutral logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
