
Euronext wheat rose back above 230 euros per tonne as international demand for French-origin grain grew. Black Sea export flows remain sharply disrupted, and US-Russia-Ukraine talks have produced no move toward de-escalation.
Argentina's harvest is arriving, and Rosario raised its estimate by 0.5 Mt to 24.3 Mt.
Lost Black Sea shipments are pushing buyers toward EU and other origins, which supports European wheat prices. Argentina's competitive harvest and a firmer euro against the dollar are limiting the rally, and corn is also firmer on tight EU supply.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.