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ASAP Agri projects Ukraine could export 29 to 47 million tonnes of agricultural products in 2026/27, depending on sea logistics and whether Greater Odesa ports resume operations. Under the most optimistic scenario, deep-water exports could reach 17 million tonnes, while rail exports are estimated at 14 million tonnes.
Early signs of preparation for resumed seaborne shipments include Handysize vessel offers from Odesa to Egypt at about $130/t including a ballast bonus, up from $23/t in July.
Lower Ukrainian export capacity tightens Black Sea supply for importers such as Egypt and supports Black Sea grain and freight prices, while any port reopening would add supply and ease freight costs.
latifundist.comІрина ШевчукNov 13, 2026After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
