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Russia's share of global sunflower oil exports, estimated at around 38%, could fall to 25–28% if maritime shipments are fully blocked in the Azov-Black Sea basin. India, Iran and Turkey are the largest buyers and could redirect purchases to other suppliers, and Russia's soybean meal share could also decline.
A loss of Russian sunflower oil and meal exports would tighten global vegetable oil and meal supply, supporting prices as buyers shift to other origins.
ukragroconsult.comNov 13, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 85 past bullish logistics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.7%), and +3.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
