Loading…
Sovecon forecasts Russian wheat exports in November at 2.8-3.2 million tonnes, versus 5.2 million a year earlier and a five-year average of 4 million. On November 9 the consultancy cut its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast by 0.7 million tonnes to 36 million, and now sees no recovery of Black Sea shipping before spring 2027.
A November 11 attack on the Ust-Luga oil terminal, a key Baltic grain port handling 600-700 thousand tonnes monthly, adds risk, and Lithuanian transit checks could delay Russian grain by two months or more.
Sustained lower Russian wheat export flows tighten global wheat supply and support export prices, while ruble-denominated domestic prices face pressure. Buyers should expect firmer wheat offers and limited Russian availability through winter.
agroexpert.pressБогдан ЧайковскийNov 12, 2026After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 22 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -1.2% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +3.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
