
Wholesale beef in China reached 73.53 yuan per kg in early November, up 26.7% from a year earlier, as the cattle herd shrank 4.4% in 2025. Beijing also applied country-by-country quotas to imported beef this year, tightening supply further.
A shrinking domestic herd and import quotas keep Chinese beef prices high and support import demand, which lifts global cattle prices. Cattle take 27 to 28 months to reach market, so supply recovery will be slow.
After 78 past bullish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.2%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.