
Oil prices were mixed on Friday but headed for a second weekly decline as the US plans to keep its blockade of Iran. Brent was near $95.41 and WTI near $88.52, with Brent set to fall about 2.4% on the week after a 16% drop the previous week.
A continued US blockade and reduced odds of large-scale fighting ease near-term supply fears, but attacks on shipping keep risk premium in crude, which feeds into biofuel, fertilizer and freight costs for feed producers.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.