Oil jumped over $2 a barrel on Thursday after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and Hormuz shipping disruptions. Iran said four tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz, and Ukraine drones struck the Ust-Luga port in Russia, damaging fuel tanks.
Escalating attacks on tankers and Black Sea-Baltic export hubs raise energy costs and freight risk for feed commodity supply chains.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.