
The US dairy cow herd grew by 167,000 head year over year in October 2026, and October milk production rose 2.6% from a year earlier. The herd also added 15,000 head from September, and nonfat dry milk prices had nearly doubled in early 2026.
A larger herd and higher output add dairy supply, which may restrain milk and dairy product prices, though higher feed costs are expected to slow further herd growth.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.