
Saudi Arabia and Iraq drove a significant rise in OPEC+ output in October. Gulf producers are continuing oil exports despite risks around the Strait of Hormuz.
Rising Gulf output and continued exports through Hormuz ease supply fears, which is bearish for crude and reduces the energy-cost premium in feed and freight.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.