
US October CPI rose 0.4% headline and 0.3% core, both above forecasts, pushing markets toward a December Fed rate hike. UBS sees limited support on the FOMC for a 50bp move and keeps 25bp hikes in December and March as its base case.
The US Dollar Index touched 102.95, its highest since 2005, with 10-year Treasury yields near 5%.
Higher US rate expectations and a stronger dollar make US commodity exports more expensive for foreign buyers and tend to pressure dollar-denominated grain, oilseed and meal prices.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.