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GAPKI warned that Indonesia's palm oil output could fall by 3 million tons in 2027 due to El Niño-driven drought, plantation fires and smallholders cutting fertilizer use. Production rose 8.4% in January-September 2026 to 47 million tons, and exports were up 9.6%.
A 3-million-ton drop in Indonesian output would tighten global vegetable oil supply, which is likely to lift palm oil prices. Fertilizer shortages add to the risk of lower yields over several seasons.
ukragroconsult.comUkrAgroConsultNov 12, 2026After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
