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EUR/USD is falling as the US economic outlook improves relative to Europe, even though euro area PMI readings beat forecasts. French 10-year yields rose and the French-German spread reached its widest since the sovereign debt crisis.
Washington reportedly wants the EU to release about 120 million barrels of diesel from emergency reserves over six months and has signaled it could restrict US diesel exports.
Possible diesel releases and US export restrictions could shift diesel supply and freight costs for feed producers. Higher energy costs in Europe also weigh on the euro and the purchasing power of European feed buyers.
xtb.comOct 1, 2026After 27 past neutral policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -4.3% to +2.6%), and -4.6% over 20.
After 12 past policy events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (75% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Notes EUR/USD decline on 1 Oct from a relatively better US outlook, a widening French spread and energy price concerns, which fits the day's move though it is less specific.
