
The AFEX 2026 Wet Season Crop Production Report forecasts Nigerian soybean output rising 11.3% to 1.67 million tonnes. Sorghum output is predicted to rise 8% to almost 7 million tonnes.
The survey covered more than 41,000 smallholder farmers across 17 states.
Higher Nigerian sorghum and soybean output is a small supply addition for West African feed markets and has little effect on world prices. Farmers are shifting away from maize because of weak prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.