
The principals of the U.S.-China Board of Trade, USTR Greer, Treasury Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng, discussed the trade deal, with Washington pressing China to fully and immediately implement its commitments, including agricultural purchases. China conditioned purchases on tariff reductions under a 30-for-30 framework, and a forecast suggests China will fall about $10 billion short of its $17 billion farm purchase pledge for 2026.
A likely shortfall in Chinese farm purchases removes expected demand for U.S. soybeans and other grains, which is bearish for U.S. soybean prices unless a tariff deal revives buying.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.