
Ever.ag's Jenny Wackershouser says US domestic dairy demand has lagged growing processing capacity and a 200,000-plus cow herd increase. Exports must absorb extra production, but European cheese prices have fallen to about $1.50, so US exporters may need prices near $1.30 to compete.
Weak domestic demand and a global dairy glut mean milk prices are unlikely to rally in 2026, keeping pressure on dairy-linked feed demand.
After 49 past bearish trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -4.7% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Ever.ag's bearish 2026 outlook says domestic demand lags growing processing capacity and herd expansion, and that US cheese would need to fall toward $1.30 to compete in export markets, pointing to lower cheese and Class III values.