
Dairy expert Mark Stephenson says optimism for higher milk prices later this year is fading, citing trade wars and pending Chinese tariffs on dairy products. Since June 1, July Class III milk futures have fallen $2.13 per hundredweight, with August and September also lower, and cash butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk have declined.
Expected Chinese tariffs on US dairy would reduce exports and leave more product domestically, adding downward pressure on US dairy prices.
After 49 past bearish trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -4.7% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.