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The USDA's November 2026 outlook cut US rice production to 157.6 million hundredweight on lower yields and projected US ending stocks at 39.9 million hundredweight. The season-average US farm price falls $0.10 to $15.10 per hundredweight, while global supplies rise to 738 million tonnes and world ending stocks rise to 199.8 million tonnes.
Global trade is forecast to fall 1.1 million tonnes to 60.2 million tonnes, with reduced export expectations from India.
Rising world stocks and weaker trade point to softer international rice prices, which outweighs the smaller US crop and lower US stocks. Buyers should expect ample global supply to limit price gains.
ricenewstoday.comRice NewsNov 12, 2026After 87 past bearish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
