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USDA's Rice Stocks report put total US rough rice stocks at 104 million cwt on March 1, 2026, up 3% from a year earlier. Milled rice stocks rose 23% year over year to 7.71 million cwt.
Higher carryover stocks, especially the sharp rise in milled inventories, add supply cover ahead of planting and point to softer US rice values.
After 87 past bearish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.