The dollar rallied this week on a shift in short-term rate expectations driven by hawkish Fed rhetoric and hotter inflation. ING sees EUR/USD possibly testing 1.10 if upcoming US data support the dollar further.
The analysis also notes that the move is rates-driven rather than a sign of excessive dollar overvaluation.
A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced feed ingredients and commodities more expensive for buyers outside the US and can pressure US export competitiveness. Traders should watch whether a stronger dollar weighs on grain and oilseed futures.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.