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The EIA cut its winter Henry Hub forecast 16% to $2.87/MMBtu, while December futures hit a six-week high near $3.30 on colder weather talk. Futures then eased about 2.5% on Wednesday.
A lower US government price outlook signals ample domestic gas supply, a mildly bearish factor for US energy costs and ethanol and fertilizer economics.
After 40 past neutral report events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -3.5% to +2.8%), and +4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.