The USDA November report unexpectedly tightened the US balance sheet, with soybean ending stocks at 300 million bushels and corn yield cut to 179.6 bushels per acre. CBOT soybeans rose above 12 dollars and corn gained about 2%, while Chinese soymeal stabilised but domestic corn futures broke lower on record warehouse receipts.
Methionine prices rose as a major producer's plant entered a roughly five-week maintenance shutdown, and hog prices fell in spot markets.
The US supply cut supports global soybean and corn prices, but China's large corn and soymeal stocks keep domestic prices under pressure. The methionine shutdown tightens additive supply, while weak hog margins signal lower feed demand ahead.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.