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OPEC crude output rose nearly 2 million bpd in October to about 27.2 million bpd, against about 28.6 million before the Iran war, according to WSJ reporting of OPEC data. Saudi Arabia lifted production to about 10.6 million bpd from 8.4 million in September.
Strait of Hormuz transits are still about a quarter of normal.
The supply rebound helps explain recent weakness in Brent, but a price rebound on the same day shows the war risk premium persists. Any attack on pipelines or Red Sea routes could quickly reverse the supply gains and lift energy costs for feed producers.
investinglive.comEamonn SheridanNov 12, 2026After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
