
July corn fell 1 3/4 cents to $4.48 in a low-range close as USDA's May Supply and Demand Report lowered old-crop ending stocks by 50 million bushels to 1.415 billion and raised old-crop exports. USDA's first new-crop outlook put 2025/26 corn ending stocks at 1.8 billion bushels, 220 million below trade expectations, on 95.3 million planted acres and a trendline yield of 181 bushels per acre.
Lower-than-expected new-crop stocks signal a tighter balance sheet, which supports corn prices, though a firm dollar and weak inspections limited gains that day.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.