
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service projects India's 2026/27 wheat output at 121 million tonnes and rice at 147 million tonnes, both steady or higher. Corn, oilseeds and cotton are set back after southwest monsoon rainfall came in 13 per cent below the long-period average, with corn projected at 50 million tonnes and soybean at 10.7 million tonnes.
A weaker kharif corn and soybean crop in India trims exportable supply and raises domestic demand for feed grains and meal, which supports regional prices, while steady wheat and rice output keeps grain supply comfortable.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 50 past neutral report events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.