
OPEC data show Saudi Arabia raised crude output to 10.563 million bpd in October, up over 2 million bpd from September and near its pre-war February level. OPEC+ output rose about 2.04 million bpd to 41.23 million bpd over the same period.
Rising Gulf supply helps offset disruption from the Iran conflict, pushing crude and energy costs lower and easing diesel and freight pressure on feed costs. Physical market signs of surplus point to further downward price pressure.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 86 past bearish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.