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Wheat harvest in Rio Grande do Sul has reached 70% of the expected area, but an estimate indicates only about 150,000 tonnes of the harvested crop meet milling standards. Mills are offering R$1,400 per tonne for standard wheat, while feed-grade wheat traded at R$1,255 per tonne in Rio Grande; heavy rain in Santa Catarina has damaged production and grain quality, with output forecast down 36% to 243,000 tonnes.
Limited supplies of milling-quality wheat and weather-related losses in Santa Catarina support local wheat prices, while the larger volume of lower-quality grain may remain available for feed at a discount. The quality split could widen price differences between milling and feed wheat.
agrolink.com.brLeonardo GottemsNov 11, 2026After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
