War-hit Black Sea route for Russian and Ukrainian grain, and India’s stake in making it safe again

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jun 15, 2022Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain | RAND-2.3%
• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-3.7%
• Jun 1, 2023Ukraine says Russia again blocking Black Sea grain export deal | Reuters-3.6%
• Jun 28, 2022The Battle for the Black Sea | Russia-Ukraine war | Al Jazeera-7.7%
• Jul 9, 2020Ukrainian farmers and grain exports hit hard by Russian blockade of Black Sea ports | Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation+0.7%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jun 15, 2022Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain | RAND-1.6%
• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-1.0%
• Jun 1, 2023Ukraine says Russia again blocking Black Sea grain export deal | Reuters-2.2%
• Jun 28, 2022The Battle for the Black Sea | Russia-Ukraine war | Al Jazeera+4.0%
• Jul 9, 2020Ukrainian farmers and grain exports hit hard by Russian blockade of Black Sea ports | Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation-5.2%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.