U.S. soybean futures rose 3.4% in the previous session and topped $12.10 per bushel after USDA cut its U.S. production estimate by 23 million bushels below market expectations and reduced its ending-stocks forecast by 15 million bushels. Weak Chinese import demand, amid high inventories and poor crushing margins, limited the gains; USDA raised its 2025/26 Chinese import estimate and left South American production forecasts unchanged.
Lower U.S. production and ending stocks tighten the expected supply balance and support soybean prices. Weak Chinese buying is a counterweight that could curb export demand and limit further gains.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.