
U.S. distillate inventories fell 3.6 million barrels to 99.3 million in the week ended October 30, their lowest level since May 2003. Demand over the previous four weeks was 8.7% above a year earlier, while refineries ran at 94.5% of capacity; the national diesel average declined 16.5 cents to $6.13 per gallon but remained well above year-earlier levels.
Low inventories and strong demand leave little cushion ahead of winter, supporting diesel prices and raising feed transport and production costs. Higher refinery output and exports have not prevented stocks from tightening.
After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.