The U.S. dollar rose 1.46% on Tuesday to R$5.5863, its highest level since July 2025, following Lula’s reelection. Economists said the real is likely to remain under pressure until the government provides a credible fiscal-adjustment plan and clarity on its economic team.
Fiscal uncertainty is weakening the real, raising the BRL cost of imported feed and other inputs while potentially improving the competitiveness of Brazilian exports. Continued currency volatility could affect local commodity pricing.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.