
Germany’s final October HICP confirmed a 0.1% month-on-month decline and 2.8% year-on-year increase, down from 0.6% and 3.3% in September. The euro fell against the dollar as U.S. October CPI and core CPI both exceeded expectations, strengthening expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate hike.
Stronger U.S. inflation can support the dollar by raising the expected path of interest rates, while easing German inflation may weigh on the euro. That combination pressured EUR/USD lower.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.