
WTI traded near $85.70, extending a rebound from around $83, its lowest level since late August. A larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories and ongoing security risks around the Strait of Hormuz supported prices, while optimism about US-Iran negotiations capped gains.
A possible diplomatic resolution and reduced disruption risk could ease the crude supply premium, although inventory draws and attacks on regional shipping and infrastructure provide support.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.