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Brazilian farmers are slowing forward sales of the 2026/27 soybean crop as El Niño-related rainfall uncertainty raises concerns about producing enough to meet existing contracts. About 35.7% of expected production had been sold by November, versus 26% a year earlier; in Mato Grosso, the share was 49%, compared with 33% a year earlier.
The prospect of irregular rainfall raises production and fulfillment risk, encouraging farmers to hold back from additional sales and potentially tightening export availability, which is supportive for soybean prices.
canalrural.com.brGabriel AlmeidaNov 10, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
