Dollar Holds Near Two-Week High, Fed Rate Hike Bets Strengthen

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Aug 31, 2026Dollar holds near two-week high as bets rise on September Fed rate hike | Markets News - Business Standard-0.6%
• Jun 23, 2026Dollar Hits Highest Since November as Fed Rate Hike Bets Strengthen - Bloomberg+0.3%
• Sep 24, 2026Dollar Holds Near Two-Month High As Rate Bets Reset - Finimize+0.7%
• Jun 30, 2026US dollar holds near 13-month high as yen's slide, Fed rate hike bets boost the greenback-0.1%
• Jun 30, 2026United States Dollar Index strengthens above 101.00 on Fed rate hike bets-0.1%

After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jun 18, 2026US dollar rally builds as hawkish Fed meeting stokes rate-hike bets | The Straits Times-1.8%
• Jan 25, 2022Dollar near two-week high amid jitters over hawkish Fed, Ukraine-0.9%
• Jan 31, 2022Dollar holds near 18-month high ahead of busy central bank week - CNBC TV18+2.6%
• Sep 23, 2020Dollar Strengthens; Helped by Housing Data and Fed Comments+0.1%
• Dec 15, 2016Dollar charges higher after Fed hikes rates-2.2%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.