
The dollar held near a two-month high after strong US PMI data and a weak five-year Treasury auction pushed yields back above 5%. Traders lifted the implied odds of an October Fed hike to nearly 70%.
Higher rate expectations strengthen the dollar, which pressures dollar-priced commodity values and raises the cost of imports for emerging-market feed buyers. Tighter financial conditions can also weigh on demand.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.