
Grain markets fell sharply on Thursday, with soybeans taking the brunt of selling, after the US-China summit offered no concrete agricultural purchase agreements. Analysts noted the original 25 million metric ton soybean agreement from October remains in place but is nothing in writing and not new.
Profit-taking and fund liquidation driven by unmet expectations pressure soybeans, corn and wheat, with competition from South American supplies adding downside.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Soybeans took the brunt of the grain selloff because the summit gave no concrete purchase agreements and the October 25 MMT deal was not new.