EUR/USD outlook: Surges on much weaker than expected US NFP numbers

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Mar 23, 2020EUR/USD: FED Unlimited QE Sees Euro Gains But Nordea Unwilling To Call For Weaker Dollar Outlook+3.5%
• Mar 7, 2025US dollar sags after weaker-than-expected jobs data, Fed's Powell comments+0.4%
• Nov 23, 2021Dollar gains, euro recovers on better than expected data | Reuters+0.2%
• Jun 28, 2016EU wheat prices weaken as firmer euro dents export outlook+0.5%
• Jul 27, 2026Euro: September hike outlook offers support against US Dollar – UOB+1.2%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Apr 12, 2023Oil rises 2% on lower-than-expected US inflation data | Reuters-0.4%
• Nov 15, 2023Ringgit Gains Ground As US Dollar Weakens On Lower-Than-Expected CPI Data-0.9%
• Mar 23, 2020EUR/USD: FED Unlimited QE Sees Euro Gains But Nordea Unwilling To Call For Weaker Dollar Outlook-2.0%
• Mar 7, 2025US dollar sags after weaker-than-expected jobs data, Fed's Powell comments-0.1%
• Jan 1, 2026Dollar falls versus yen after smaller-than-expected rise in US inflation, euro eases+0.3%