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Brazil imported 7.95 million tonnes of urea and ammonium sulphate in January–September 2026, down 21% year on year, while late-October urea prices rose to $476–488 per tonne CFR. Fertilizer deliveries are expected to decline in 2026, and the shutdown of Petrobras’ ANSA plant has reduced domestic urea capacity as second-crop corn planting approaches.
Lower imports, higher prices and reduced local output could constrain nitrogen availability for Brazil’s safrinha crop. Tighter supply raises urea costs and could limit fertilizer application, with potential downside for corn yields and bullish pressure on urea.
alupetra.comCaner AltunNov 10, 2026After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
