Oil prices fell for a second session after President Donald Trump signaled he would hold off on further strikes against Iran. Brent was down to about $91 a barrel, while analysts said shipping risks remained elevated and a further decline depended on clearer signs of de-escalation.
Reduced risk of military escalation lowers the chance of prolonged Middle Eastern supply disruption and pressures crude, although ongoing shipping risks could limit the downside.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.