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Russian 12.5%-protein wheat offered FOB from Baltic ports for December delivery fell to $251 per tonne last week from $260 a week earlier, amid weaker demand as buyers awaited possible Ukraine peace talks. Russian wheat export estimates were also cut: IKAR lowered its 2026/27 potential to 39.5 million tonnes from 42 million, while October shipments were estimated at 2.9–3.1 million tonnes.
Weaker buying interest and lower export offers are bearish for wheat prices, although the reduced export forecast points to tighter Russian export availability and may limit the decline. Any easing of Black Sea security concerns could also affect the competitiveness and routing of regional supplies.
kapitalvest.infoРедакция Капитал РоссииNov 9, 2026After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
