
Fighting between Russia and Ukraine continues to disrupt wheat shipments from the Black Sea, making grain movement more difficult and costly despite supplies being available. The report notes that Russia and Ukraine are meeting for U.S.-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11.
Higher shipping costs and disruption can support global wheat prices, but the availability of supplies and reluctance to pay more for alternative origins may limit gains.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.