◂ Event Timeline

Nov 10, 2026REPORTEuropean Union

USDA: EU Butter Output Seen Down 1.7% in 2027

USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts EU27 butter production at 2.26 million tonnes in 2027, down 1.7% from 2026. The forecast reflects stronger returns for cheese, which are expected to draw milk away from butter production, while large butter stocks built up in 2026 are expected to help meet demand.

WHY IT MATTERS

The shift toward cheese and existing stocks point to lower butter production without an equivalent reduction in overall milk supply. This could tighten butter availability, while the impact on feed demand is limited and indirect.

AFFECTSMilk (Class III)

SOURCE
agribusinesswire.comRebecca StoneNov 10, 2026

Price reaction & history

Milk (Class III)no directional read

After 664 past report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.1% over 20.

Jan 6, 2025USDA Dairy Production Report: Surprising Trends in Cheese, Butter, and Milk Output for November 2024 | The Bullvine-1.3%
May 27, 2017USDA Expects Higher Milk Output, Higher Cheese, Milk Prices In 2018 – Histórico eDairyNews+5.3%
Oct 6, 2025USDA raises milk output forecast for 2025 and 2026 | The Dairy Site-1.7%
Jun 12, 2026USDA Hikes 2026, 2027 Milk Production Forecasts; Rabobank Sees Slowing Global Milk Output - Cheese Reporter+0.3%
May 25, 2023EU27 cheese gains at expense of butter, says USDA FAS - Dairy Industries International-3.5%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Milk (Class III) MILK · GP ▸

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