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Urea prices stabilised after India's IPL announced a 1.5-million-tonne tender closing April 8, lifting Middle East paper futures by USD 9-13/tonne. Ammonia output in Europe is being curtailed by another producer amid high gas prices, and China's export resumption is a key uncertainty.
A large Indian tender and European ammonia curtailments support nitrogen prices, while possible Chinese exports could reverse the rally, adding cost uncertainty for feed producers.
czapp.comStein Chingen HauganMar 31, 2025After 59 past bullish trade events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.7% to +10.6%), and +8.0% over 20.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
India's IPL announced a 1.5 Mt urea tender closing April 8, which lifted Middle East paper futures by USD 9-13/t and steadied prices, while European ammonia curtailments and uncertainty over China's exports add supply-side support, consistent with a sharp one-day rise.
India's IPL 1.5-million-tonne urea tender closing April 8 lifted Middle East futures by USD 9-13/tonne, while European ammonia curtailments from high gas prices tightened supply, both plausibly feeding a sharp urea price jump a few days later, though the event predates the move by three days and China's export uncertainty adds ambiguity.
