The dollar gained 1.46% against the real, closing at R$5.5863 after reaching R$5.61 during the session. US consumer inflation rose 0.4% in the month, above the 0.3% forecast, prompting markets to raise expectations for Federal Reserve rate increases; Brazil’s Copom minutes also reinforced caution.
A higher dollar raises the cost of imported feed and agricultural inputs for Brazilian buyers. The inflation surprise and higher rate expectations strengthened the dollar and pressured the real.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.