
Brent and WTI fell about 2% to fresh two-month lows after US officials said additional military action against Iran was not needed, easing fears of further Middle East supply disruptions. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said sanctions and the naval blockade were working, while Trump had said he would hold off on new strikes for now.
Reduced expectations of conflict-driven supply interruptions lower crude’s risk premium and weigh on oil prices, with potential downstream relief for fuel and freight costs.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.