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Expectations that the US-Iran conflict may wind down drove oil, gas, and forward power prices lower on November 9. Brent and European TTF futures fell, while crude shipping costs also declined; the report noted that cold weather, low wind, and outages were still supporting spot power prices in parts of Europe.
Easing conflict risk reduces the premium in oil and gas markets, and cheaper freight can make crude supply more mobile, reinforcing the bearish price pressure.
energyscan.engie.comNov 10, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 15 past bearish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -9.2% to +2.4%), and +4.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
